Aurora Chance Calculator for Kiruna

Your trip dates

How this is calculated

We use historical monthly averages for three independent factors and combine them into a per-night viewing chance, then compound across your trip length using the formula 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ — the probability of at least one success across n attempts.

• KP index (NOAA SWPC): monthly averages from the last 10 years of 3-hourly K-index readings, filtered to evening hours (17:00–03:00 local).
• Cloud cover (SMHI Kiruna station 180040): mean nighttime cloud fraction per month.
• Dark hours: astronomical twilight calculation for 67.8558° N (Kiruna latitude).

This is a planning tool using averages — actual aurora nights depend on solar activity which is volatile. A "low" probability doesn't mean you won't see it; a "high" probability doesn't guarantee it. For tonight's real forecast use the live KP + cloud page.