Your trip dates

Arrival

Departure

Probability of at least one aurora night

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Nights

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Avg KP

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Historical

Avg Cloud

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SMHI 10yr

Dark Hours

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Per night

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How this is calculated

We use historical monthly averages for KP and cloud cover, then calculate Kiruna's astronomical darkness for each calendar night in your trip. Each night gets its own viewing chance, and those nightly odds are compounded across your stay.

KP index (NOAA SWPC): monthly averages from the last 10 years of 3-hourly K-index readings, filtered to evening hours (17:00–03:00 local).
Cloud cover (SMHI Kiruna station 180040): mean nighttime cloud fraction per month.
Dark hours: astronomical darkness calculated per date for 67.8558° N (Kiruna latitude).

This is a planning tool using averages — actual aurora nights depend on solar activity which is volatile. A "low" probability doesn't mean you won't see it; a "high" probability doesn't guarantee it. For tonight's real forecast use the live KP + cloud page.